THE OFFICIAL CIVILIZATION BATTLE ROYALE X POWER RANKINGS: PART 1

Author: SZAFNGA
Published: 2019-06-23, edited: 2019-06-23

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THE OFFICIAL CIVILIZATION BATTLE ROYALE X POWER RANKINGS

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Game: Civilization V, Sid Meier's

THE OFFICIAL CIVILIZATION BATTLE ROYALE X POWER RANKINGS: PART 0

Images: 61, author: SZAFNGA, published: 2019-06-15

JMan: Toussaint does not make his way out of 61st, but his deviation has increased! Rather than settle Hispaniola uselessly like he usually does, he instead settled Cuba! It's a good start, but he has to keep pushing if he wants to make it farther than his projections would have you believe.
Techno: The Isle of Mann has performed roughly as expected. Two cities, low production, and an abysmal military are exactly what we feared would come out of this island start. Perhaps the only good thing about the Manx is that they aren’t about to provoke a warmonger, which is just about the only thing keeping them out of last place.
Msurdej: Is it Tonga Time? I think its Tonga Time.
Unfortunately, Tonga Time is also sad times, as Tonga tumbles down a bit. They didn't make a third city, don't have any other seen settlers, and have some abyssmal scores in production and military. Worse still, Seddon seems to be moving north, looking to take more of Tonga's islands. While this won't outright kill Siaosi, this will cripple his already bleak chances of winning.
Timrtabor: Minoa had a decent second settle this part by claiming the northern part of the Nile. They will need to continue this solid ettling pattern and score an alliance in North Africa (Beta Israel?) to gang up on Nubia to carve out a danker empire. A larger navy also wouldn't hurt.
LacsiraxAriscal:Yowch! It's a big slide for the Xia this week, and it doesn't take a scientist to see why; they're the target for the first DoW in the game, and they don't look too prepared. They were already having a fairly mediocre first part, taking a long time to settle their second city Chu, and only at the end of the part squeezing out another settler to head further south. With no army to speak of, and Qin already fielding a healthy mix of warriors and archers, Xia will have to trust the Qin commanders get too greedy and split their forces across the whole Xia empire, without quite committing enough army on any one attack. But that hope rests on Qin mistakes; right now that's all Xia have, and that's not a great sign moving forward. If they do live through this, there is still a lot of unclaimed land further south, so a bounce back isn't out of the question.
Homusubi: Scotland haven't exactly been quick off the starting block, failing to build a settler in the first thirty turns and not leaving the northern half of the British Isles. On the other hand, the Manx haven't had a stunning performance either, and so Scotland is still the favourite in the Isles. Scotland's chances largely depend on what they do next, especially seeing as they have breathing room thanks to the Vikings' focus on Scandinavia itself and the Manx not settling any more than the Scots. Lordie tells me that Edinburgh being the same size as Glasgow means that the former is likely training a settler, but where will it go? Into Britain, to land a potentially decisive advantage against Manx? Head north, settling some mediocre-at-best land near the Arctic and potentially becoming a wildcard? Or just go full Braveheart and charge straight into the middle of the HRE core without any protection?
Adm. Cloudberg: Muscovy slides into the 50s as already low expectations for this civ get even lower. They’re still sitting at two cities and very little army while Prussia expands rapidly and the Goths beef up for war. With their neighbours looking increasingly stacked and Muscovy doing Nebby only knows what with their time and production, the window of opportunity for Ivan the Terrible to stake out his claim on Eastern Europe is rapidly closing.
Aaron: Venice has had a slight increase in rank due to not falling over and collapsing on the starting line. Their second city is perfectly positioned, defending the western alpine passes while not being vulnerable itself. This makes Italy a nightmare to attack from land: it should be nearly impossible to attack Venice without investing in some form of navy. They'll be able to turtle to their heart's desire for some time.
Scissor: What can be said about the Nenets? I wouldnt know as they didn't appear in the slides. Luckily for us, the uncut video has a lot to say! The Nenets have settled downwards towards the Kazakhs but they do not appear to have any more settlers left, which is a problem because the Kazakhs seem to have 2 more settlers in addition to their 2 cities. The Nenets better pump out new cities if they want a chance at establishing a secure Arctic empire.
Kuikuro: The Kuikuro are performing about as expected, but that’s definitely not a great sign. One thing they have going for them is large amount of unsettled territory near them, but if they don’t decide to rapidly settle it, Venezuela or Uruguay certainly will. A jungle start won’t help them in that task, either, with excessively low production all across the board, being one of only two civs in the single digits (the other being Canada). There’s still a chance, but if initiative ain’t shown in the coming parts that chance will evaporate as Kuikuro’s neighbors grow.
Lordie: So far the award for biggest "Oof" of the game, goes to Madagascar. Losing their two triremes at the start of the game to god-knows-where has meant they've been at a small production disadvantage. This doesn't mean, however, that they're relegated to irrelvancy, as they still have a well known ruthless streak. However, with Zimbabwe looking strong, they do need to get a move on or face being locked out of mainland Africa.
Adm. Cloudberg: Jamalul Kiram I falls slightly in the rankings, but a drop of four spots at this point in the game is really statistical noise, especially when you’re not in the top or bottom 10. So far Sulu has done little of note: they’ve settled their second city in a decent location on the Indonesia island of Sulawesi and are already receiving Papuan cargo ships. They don’t appear to have built anything in the way of military so far, but they won’t need it for a while yet anyway with their isolated starting position.
Doom: Well that didn't go as planned. In just one part Australia have managed to pin the Murri to the coast. This pushes the Murri out of the mid tier ranks and towards the endangered civs. While it's not a foregone conclusion yet, it's hard to be optimistic.
The one positive note is that the Murri currently have a better army than most. However New Zealand is still out of reach and Australia's cities are well protected by mountains, hills and rivers.
The Murri ranking is surprisingly controversial among the PR, ranging from as high as 15 to as low as 58. Their military has a narrow window to take Australian cities before they get out teched or New Zealand's inevitable navy arrives. Both murri cities are quite vulnerable to coastal attacks and their naval biases are low. In short, time is running out fast.
JMan: William King has really made a terrible move in the opening turns! Although most would consider a forward, distant settle a good move, this one is a bit TOO distant. Now Canada risks being bisected by the Iroquois or sniped by the Apache. I wouldn't imagine that a Canadian civilization would do too well in most Battle Royales, but King needs to start thinking, or at least consolidate his territory before it is too late. Hopefully that settler between the cities does what the previous one should have, but we have yet to see what it can do.
JMan: The Mysterious Masked Men have surprised us quite a bit this week, hence why they gain ground in the rankings. A civilization that never, or rarely uses their Unique Unit properly have done the unthinkable. They have used it! The Yup'ik are now sporting three cities, all on the Alaskan peninsula! Soon enough, they should manage to make their way across the Bering Strait!
Doom: Taungoo plummets in the rankings, going from 27 to 48(at the time of writing). This is not because of a particular failing on Taungoo's part but rather the successes of other civs.
Although their settling has so far been lacklustre, Canton hasn't done any better so there's no immediate danger.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Taungoo hold approximately this rank for a while given how quiet they can be. Channeling the spirit of Mark 1 Khmer or Mark 2 Burma to turtle won't win Taungoo any prizes though.
Lordie: Shikoku are probably going to get a bad rep for doing nothing this part, only founding two cities. This is alleviated somewhat by the fact that, as Homusubi as been mentioning constantly in the discord, they settle one next turn near Mount Fuji. Because all you need in CBRX is definitely faith and culture. It'll be a few more parts before it becomes make-or-break time for them yet.
Msurdej: Taking one of the largest tumbles in the rankings, Papua falls from the top 20 into the bottom third. Their only settle of the part seems to be designed by a crack team of architects and settlers to be the most vulnerable to naval attacks as they could possibly make it. And with no other settlers in sight, it doesn't seem like Rajapapua is going to make a sprawling empire in Australia anytime soon. Coupled with some less than stellar production and military, Papua is doing more to disappoint than it is to wow the most of the PR team.
Adm. Cloudberg: The Ottomans fall in the rankings this part as their neighbours decide to settle towards them, cutting off expansion opportunities. Mehmed made the bold choice to settle into crowded Europe instead of the Anatolian peninsula, and this may not pay off for him, as his route west was quickly blocked by the Czech Republic. And at the same time, Palmyra settled straight north into Anatolia with a solid settle amid rough terrain that will be easy to defend. Mehmed has a third settler out, but he needs more than that to lock down a reasonable amount of territory. If he doesn’t, he may suffer the same fate as Byzantium in Mark 2.
Adm. Cloudberg: Libya fumbles around a bit in the lower middle part of the rankings as the rankers struggle to decide what to do with them. On the one hand, they’ve founded the first religion, which is great. On the other hand they’re still at two cities while neighbouring Algeria has three, and Minoa’s early settle into Africa further reduces the amount of space they’ll have to settle. The Sahara looks uninviting, and although its perils are somewhat mitigated by Libya’s unique abilities, it’s still not much to build an empire off of. Libya’s route to success may well depend on conquest of weaker neighbours.
Scissor: The fortunes for this bottom 10 civ seem to be rising! Korea has gained the favor of the power rankers due to mainly the failure of the Qing to expand in the direction of the Korean peninsula. This makes Seonjo's position much more secure and allows him to further set up cities outside the Korean peninsula. The first part seemed to go in Korea's favor, but don't forget that Qing's military training bias has led them to create a sizeable army that currently Seonjo has no answer to. The future is looking up for Seonjo but Korea needs to play their cards perfectly in order to avoid an early confrontation with the Qing.
Msurdej: Nubia takes a slight tumble as Minoa heads to mainland Africa, settling along the Nile and denying Nubia an easy port. Piye meanwhile, moved south towards Beta Israel, and doesn't seem to have any more settlers at the moment. He does however, have a great deal of warriors and his Seige having UU Archers, which could mean trouble if Piye moves to war with someone.
Glycolysis: The Evenks haven’t shifted much from the original PR prediction in Part 0, only dropping a couple spots. Being pinned up in Siberia by a strong-looking Khamug Khanate is not a good sign for things to come, but as the Part 1 narration stated, the Evenks like to settle. If they can grow enough to overpower the Khamugs in the future, they have a good shot at being a power.
Glycolysis: The Golden Horde finds itself with a quite mediocre start, hence their slight decline in ranking. They have only two cities, and their second, while not too badly placed, ain't in the best position either. Their military is pretty weak as well. And in between all of this, they find themselves forward settled by the Goths who, while they only have 2 cities, also have the largest military in the game right now. All these challenges are sure to complicate things. While they do have some good points, their aggessive AI, for example, they certainly will have their work cut out for them.
Reformer: Our favorite Buccaneer replacements are in a strange place right now. To their north, Qin and Xia are duking it out, and whatever the end result may be, Canton should be able to capitalize on it by settling Southern China uncontested. To their west, Taungoo starts off poorly and slides down the rankings hard. Out at sea, Sulu and Papua settle with speeds similar to that of snails. Arguably, the Pirates' demons are on the inside: even with all this potential, they are unlikely to capitalize on it as they should. A more realistic scenario is indeed one where a victorious Qin gobbles them up at some point in the future. We can only cross our fingers and pray that it ain't so.
Scissor: Gott mitt Prussia it seems. Prussia recieve a massive boost from nearly last and now are comfortably middle of the pack. The normal Prussian enemies of Muscovy and Czechs have not crippled Prussia with their settles in part 1 and Prussia now has ample room to build a core in which he can defend. Prussia seem to have escape their usual fate as punching bag of Europe and now can challenge their usual rivals in the region, Muscovy, who do not seem too keen on building cities at the moment. Prussia should watch out for HRE though, which has a settler that they can send east and start a conflict with Prussia
Doom: Although they have the same amount of cities and settlers as Libya, Algeria will have a much easier time than Libya in the inevitable war. If Abdelaker plays his cards right, an early war to capture Libya's second city will cement him as the premier power of the region.
Algeria also have less to worry about from other civs unless the moors decide to turn around which is unlikely after their trek into France. This won't last forever. Taking out Libya before they can establish themselves properly is Abdelaker's best shot at relevance.
Aaron: A good first part for the Seljuks. They are well on their way to a reasonable, though sandy, core. They never had much space to begin with, so filling it up fast is a necessity. Unfortunately, they don't really anywhere to go after this, with both Parthia and India already at their doorstep, and Palmyra and Oman not far either. Their outer cities are also quite vulnerable, being in flat desert and will need defending. They have acquired desert folklore so a religion might be on the horizon, though if I were them I would aim to build Petra in Hamadan.
Scissor: Not much has changed for Parthia in terms of rankings. There are some good things Parthia has done. They have 3 cities out and a decent military. They have also settled their cities on good terrain, guarenteeing defensibility and nice terrain yields. There are things that also hurt Parthia. By not focusing on their south, India has cut off any chance that Parthia was going to get a chance to get into India by settling a city in the Bolan Pass, making entry to India harder for Parthia. Also the Seljuqs have settled well and the combination of Hamadan and Allahabad make Parthian expansion southwards much much more difficult. Parthia is in a good position to turtle in, but in order to become a contestant, a civ needs to do more than turtle.
JMan: The Emperor of the HRE is, fittingly, the most imperial German from the 1800s, but the HRE only climbs so high because of its prolific settling. Despite having a vast amount of land available to them, the HRE have clustered very closely together. Whilst this may keep them defended in the long run, this could also make them go the way of the Hitler for not taking advantage of their land sooner...
Lordie: Honestly, this write up could be summed up with, "They didn't do much". However, the Beta Israel did manage to found a pantheon, and a third city, so they're not too badly off. To the north, Nubia face Minoa, so perhaps Gudit could take advantage. Hopefully they don't repeat Mk2 Ethiopia and just sit there for a few eras.
LacsiraxAriscal: As you can see from the deviation, rankers this week were divided on India, ultimately placing them fairly midtable. One the one hand, they secured three cities, one at a handy defensive chokepoint, putting them on the front foot against an expanding Seljuks and a currently disinterested Parthia. They also topped the overall Infoaddict charts, though in all honesty I'm not sure why or how. On the other hand, this meant neglecting India proper, with the Maratha striding north with confidence and Nepal placing a city right on their front doorstep. Being as exposed as they are, neglecting some border was inevitable, but Nepal are by far the deadliest of their neighbours, so Indira would do well to reinforce her capital as soon as possible. Otherwise Indira could find herself relegated to the Punjab and Pakistan... likely her worst nightmare.
Glycolysis: Unless I missed something prior to writing this, the Nazca are the only civ outside of the absolute bottom tier to have not changed rank between Parts 0 and 1. As such, really there’s not too much to talk about with them. They’re in the upper half, barely, according to the Power Ranking team, but they’re on a continent with three separate Top Ten civs. That does not bode well for their future, but perhaps they can still take advantage of a weak Kuikuro and make a name for themselves on a continent of giants.
Timrtabor: Ragnar got some good news this part: Eadni wasted one of her two settlers on a rather meh city location.. If he can build up an army and infrastructure (and its the fucking Vikings that'll happen going off the IRL and AI track record) some damage could be done to the old lady's empire. That being said the AI might have trouble trouble attacking in and out of Norway as we saw last match with Hakkodon's Norway.
Aaron: Ndongo drops quite substantially this part. They are badly losing the settling race to their neighbour and main rival, Zimbabwe. Nzinga has only just send out her first settler north, while Zimbabwe already has 4 cities with a 5th on the way. Ndongo will have to pick up the pace if it doesn't want to end up as food for the bigger civ. They have chosen honour which is good for fighting, but is completely useless if your enemy is already too huge for you to take on!
LacsiraxAriscal: Oman gain a healthy boost in the rankings this week, and with good reason; unlike nearby Palmyra, Beta Israel and Nubia, Oman already have three cities down, and two more settlers up and running. While this has been produced at the expense of an army, they're isolated enough that defending themselves doesn't need to be a priority until the advent of navies. Speaking of which, all three cities they've founded so far have been coastal - useful for building the fleet they'll need to thrive, and also a good choice given the useless deserts that make up Arabia's interior. It won't be plain sailing - there's still a real threat of being trapped in their peninsula - but right now Oman are looking shipshape.
Homusubi: Over twenty places up in one round? What's going on? Well, part of it, to be fair, is a result of the confusing mess that is early prediction. But it's not just that, by any means. Haida have been somewhat inconsistent in tests, there have been Good Haidas and Bad Haidas, and so far, this is looking like the former. For a tiny-island civ, settling a third city so soon is itself an achievement, but that's not all that's right for Koyah. The Metis, his largest obvious threat, are settling eastwards and seem to be looking to Canada for potential expansion opportunities; while the Yup'ik, although having a better start than many predicted, are still, well, the Yup'ik against the Haida. Of course, the start, and the neighbours' decisions, could still be flukes, but then again, your people could still be wearing Koyah's pink jeans and balancing their dead on totem poles in the far future.
Reformer: With a mediocre rank and a mediocre deviation, Maratha is like many, many other civs in the middle of the pack: nigh-impossible to rank decisively. They do manage to climb to a more comfortable position in the top half of the rankings due to their slightly-better-than-average position. With India and Nepal already looking to duke it out, neither civ is in a position to contest Maratha completely blotting out South India. Admittedly, they will still need war to break out of their peninsular prison, but if Nepal and India smash together fruitlessly, it should be effortless for Shivaji.
LacsiraxAriscal: Palmyra's first part wasn't the most eventful, founding a second city in a good position and building a decent early army to boot. The actions of their neighbours are more interesting; Nubia, the Seljuks and the Ottomans all looked to other directions, while Golden Horde established themselves as a player in the Caucasus/Middle East region. Their most immediate rival, Oman, have also kept themselves to themselves. As exposed as they are, the options are still wide open for Palmyra at this point; their main concern should be expanding to fill that space before any of their neighbours decide it's worth the trip, but given they haven't yet built a settler, that concern could soon be... well, a cause for concern.
Glycolysis: Sporting a massive military, nobody should mess with the Goths right now. The weakness of their neighbours is a huge boist for a prospective Black Sea Empire. We are all excited to see what the Goths are capable of.
Reformer: Not unlike a majority of the American civs, Aztecs ends Part 1 with 2 cities, which, while not terrible, is a solid middle of the pack move for a civ that was earlier ranked in the top 15. Of course, with their every neighbor performing similarly so far, this drop in rankings is more a symptom of other faraway civs proving their worth and consequently rising up the rankings. For Aztecs, a slow start means at best one decisive thing: Venezuela will lock down Panama long before the Aztecs reach the canal location. Other than that, North America remains very much open for them.
Timrtabor: Is Askia so guilt stricken from burning down that building in his leader screen that he is doing some sorta Extreme Makeover:Home Edition bullhit for the Benin? That is the only logical explanation I can see for his overzealous settling relative to his manpower and proximity to an enemy.
Techno: Remember how we said that these guys were a wildcard? Well, it seems like Poverty Point is off to as good of a start as they could ask for, and with that, their ranking has jumped to reflect this development. Poverty Point’s key showing point is their militarism - they’ve built up their forces enough to defend against any Apache raiders, and if they continue this trend of adequately defending themselves, they’ll be well-prepared to ward off any future aggression.

That being said, Poverty Point is by no means invulnerable. The Apache still pose a major threat that cannot be ignored, while the Iroquois could quickly grow in power if they take advantage of Canada’s terrible decision-making. Poverty Point still has to work hard to secure its place in a very competitive continent.
JMan: Although most people would assume that Benin is in a terrible position with Songhai's forward settles, it may just be to Ewuare's advantage. He has a very strong army ahead of him, and if he decides to expand? Askia may have crippled himself to feed into Benin's aspirations.
Timrtabor: The Iroquois are known for their crazy settler spam and aggressive playstyle. Some legends recorded in the Babylonian archives even report that Hiawatha has a crippling copper addiction that can set in from time to time.When such cravings ocur he sends his troops to produce new copper mining settlements across the northmost part of America. Riel and King best not approach when he is looking for a fix. Though perhaps an "intervention"(and by that we mean assassination attempt via coalition) could prove effective.
Well, as it turns out, all it takes is a misfiring Papua and a high expansion roll, and suddenly everyone is riding the Laser Kiwi express to the top twenty. Seddon looks to be a Polynesian power (if there is such a thing) this game, and given the inevitability of an Australian civil war, and the vulnerability of Papua's cities, the Kiwis have got themselves in an ideal early position. Hopefully it's not just a flash in the pan though.
JMan: Abd-ar-Rahman III takes advantage of his vast space and sees a huge confidence boost! Although he did not settle a coastal city, settling into France and out of Iberia puts him leagues ahead of his Portuguese predecessors!
Homusubi: It is greatly to Havel's credit that, despite all three of his immediate neighbours doing better than expected, he has still managed to climb up the power rankings to some extent. The Prussians, settling westwards and only westwards, and the time-loop-inducing Bismarck Holy Romans, with a respectable triangular core and a very respectable army, certainly have the potential to cramp the Czechs' style. But no, they've gone and sauntered off southeast, forming a line of cities that on closer inspection is surprisingly defensible. Even Ostrava, settled in a way that might have initially delighted the Turkish, turns out to have enough rough and river-ed terrain to its southeast to stop it from being an easy Ottoman pickup. What will become of the Czechs? That'll depend on what happens with all those fourth settlers in the neighbourhood, but even if that doesn't go perfectly, it looks as if this is the Havel we all know and love. Probably, anyway.
Adm. Cloudberg: Qing slides out of the top 10 this part as they fail to settle as aggressively as we expected. They have a third settler heading south to settle on the peninsula across from Korea, but they should have sent it east early to cut off Seonjo, and they’ve failed to do this. As a result, Korea has been allowed to expand out of its peninsula. When this happens, it’s usually bad news for Qing. On top of all of that, Qin appear to be on the rise with an early attack on Xia that threatens to topple a capital before the game has really even started. Cixi retains a fairly high rank however, due to her powerful abilities and known history of success in previous AI games.
Techno: While Poverty Point rose in rank by 9, the Apache fell by an equivalent amount, a fitting ratio for two civs that, on paper, have very similar statistics as of turn 30. In particular, their military might is rather consistent, meaning that neither power could easily triumph in a conflict between them. Even worse, to their west, the Haida have made an incredibly strong showing compared to our expectations, giving us reason to be concerned that the west coast might not be as open to Apache settlements as originally thought.

And yet, the Apache still haven’t lost the core aspects that gave them a high rank in the first place. They still have a ton of land open to them, especially with a slightly lackluster performance by the Aztecs, and their AI is still the powerhouse we know. But they’ve given themselves a larger mountain to climb, so climb it they must in order to return to their old place among the top 10.
JMan: Nepal is off to a slower start than its neigthbours, reaching only two cities like the fair majority of civilizations. The reason why Nepal has jumped from 13th to 11th is due to their forward settle on their biggest adversary, India. Whilst Indira is moving to concentrate on the Central Asian powers, the Nepalese look to lock down Northern India in an attempt to capitalize on their unique ability. If Nepal can settle a few more cities in the mountains or, indeed, in the rest of Northern India, they are sure to rival any power on the Indian Subcontinent.
Msurdej: Break out the XXXX Hawke Fans! Australia is looking to pin the Murri to the east coast of the continent, with their northern settle boxing in Gambu with another settler looking to continue the pin. If this keeps up, Australia will have an all but assured domination of the continent (Provided Papua doesn't interfere, but the way they're playing, it seems unlikely.) But Bob must also be cautious, and build up his military soon. The Murri have nearly three times the military of Australia, and if Ganuurru decides to strike now, it could be bad for Hawke.
Msurdej: With one of the strongest militaries on the cylinder, Chavez maintains a spot in the top 10. While they dont have any settlers currently, the slow start of the Aztecs to the north mean that Panama will almost certainly go the Venezulea and the Kuikuro dont seem to be a major threat despite the northward settle. And best of all, Haiti sent a settler down to Chavez's doorstep, which could give him either a fresh new city, or somebody to denounce.
Reformer: With a slightly disappointing showing in the first part, Uruguay slips a bit, still staying in the top ten due to how (in)famously good their AI is. 30 turns has not changed the fact that Uruguay is still effectively a fox in the henhouse, especially considering their neighbors in Kuikuro and Nazca weren’t particularly expansive either. In fact, a large portion of Uruguay’s drop could be attributed to Selk’nam’s expansiveness - which, while certainly encouraging for the Selk’nam fans, is still not even close to threatening Uruguay, at least in this ranker’s eyes.
JMan: As my fellow power ranker Lacsirax Ariscal will note, due to the algorithm that records the BR, we may never see the population of Selk'nam's second city. That aside with the mystery surrounding these mysterious people, the Selk'nam have htree cities and are settling steadily north. For a civilization so isolated on the southern tip of the world, this is a positive move in the right direction for what is hopefully a future pincer attack against Uruguay. Best of luck, you Eldritch Horrors!
Aaron: With the first war of the entire cylinder, Qin surges ahead! And for good reason: the Xia seem woefully unprepared for this. They have but 2 warriors to defend themselves against a veritable horde of archers and warriors! Qin might be the first to two capitals! And if they succeed, not only will they take out a competitor, but they will have a strong powerbase from which they can conquer the rest of China. A briliant move in my opinion! If they fail, they'll still be doing OK, but will have lost a lot of valuable time allowing others (Khamugs , Qing and Nepal come to mind) to start boxing them in.
Timrtabor: Riel had a fairly bog standard part 1 having started to fill out the natural land they tend to claim in the vivordi diagram. They also appear to be continuing that trend as they have another 2 settlers in the pipeline. They should probably build up a larger army though. The story of the overzealous settler spammer creating the core land for the early game warmonger is a tale as old as time.
Doom: With 3 cities out and 3 settlers ready(Even if one is slightly lost in China), the Khamugs are currently the most expansive civ.
Even better for them, the Qing are playing poorly so far with a lowly two cities and one settler. Not to mention Qing being the only civ currently losing gold. Qing are still the biggest danger to Khamug success but if current trends last, Jamukha won't have anything to worry about.
Overall a great start to the game so it's no surprise they've moved comfortably into the top 10 and are ready to stay.
Msurdej: The Sami remain much like their place in the cylinder, near the top. Though their settles haven't been the best (pushing them towards the Vikings), and their military is weak, they have very little to worry about besides Ragnar. Muscovy and the Nenets aren't rushing for Finland, which can give Eadni time to settle the area. Plus, Sami's high production give them an edge in making more units, if they can keep it up. And in these early turns, settling Sweden/Norway to take it from the Vikings may be a risky move, but a move that can pay off.
Techno:What? The Kazakhs are no longer first? How could this be?

Such a discrepancy deserves a strong explanation, and let me direct you to the image to find out. Two things should be obvious: the lack of a strong military and the lack of more than two cities. If it were any other civ, these two things alone would give us cause for concern.

But the Kazakhs still have the same advantages that they have long enjoyed. While they might only have 2 cities now, they have 2 extra settlers ready to colonize more lands. And while they might not have much of a military yet, they have no need for it, given that the Nenets haven’t militarized either and the most threatening foreign military nearby is the horde of scouts to their northwest. More importantly, the Kazakhs are playing for the long game, focusing on infrastructure and building up their empire rather than erecting an early defense, which is a tactic that their AI excels at. Take their pantheon, for instance. It’s the Sun God pantheon, so all that wheat is giving the Kazakh citizens even more food than usual. Give the Kazakhs a few parts, and their great blue blob will likely be primed to take the #1 spot yet again.
Homusubi: You're still reading this? We made you read sixty civ analyses and you're still with us for the sixty-first? Well, thanks for sticking with us in these first few confusing parts, and please accept this apology for the anticlimax at the end. Yes, the civ with a TSL dangerously close to the dreaded Pretoria is number one after part one. Everything seems to be falling into place for Nyatsimba; Ndongo and especially Madagascar haven't been settling much, and both Benin and Beta Israel seem to be focusing on their close neighbours, and so there are many of us who are predicting Zimbabwe will be first to Kilimanjaro and Lake Victoria. But it's not just a case of luck, as the khaki gospel has spread beyond the twin Z-cities of the core, all across Africa's deep south, and with an extra settler already trained and ready to make a fifth city. Zimbabwe is even doing better than was predicted in the middle of the part itself, with Dhlo-Dhlo, originally predicted to be vulnerable, looking more like a safe hold with every worker move.

Be afraid, Cylinder, be very afraid. Or alternatively, write it off as a part-1 fluke.

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